Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.595814 16.975802 19.564824 22.583119 25.997561 29.732539 34.119316
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.528438 13.700503 17.486410 22.304063 28.234138 35.255143 44.153186
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.182545 11.740963 16.339312 22.635662 30.939001 41.410899 55.495931
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 6.381845 10.005466 15.032970 22.373055 32.642545 46.301538 65.601138
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.481571 9.275254 14.866654 23.479334 36.128691 53.691907 79.502224
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.631327 8.422484 14.334878 23.902045 38.585094 59.770748 92.004653
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.892076 7.585008 13.661339 23.957374 40.413139 65.002651 103.605809
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.304396 6.879111 13.066266 24.009621 42.164499 70.170584 115.395771
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.093493 6.801780 13.492112 25.743928 46.685978 79.818407 134.524124
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.817139 6.545141 13.556007 26.843740 50.230919 88.151268 152.119315
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.565715 6.288378 13.574175 27.841993 53.656400 96.484157 170.184139
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.231395 5.793228 13.067616 27.813723 55.274707 101.933149 183.892548
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.837252 5.098494 12.091825 26.833193 55.187244 104.655413 193.543194
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.522155 4.516964 11.258355 26.025268 55.335743 107.794748 204.125915
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.334676 4.204479 10.946986 26.219440 57.367508 114.347668 220.932832
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.136012 3.814949 10.400911 25.851513 58.263326 118.905915 234.509379
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.062848 3.750664 10.592533 27.077496 62.401721 129.618045 259.573240
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.954921 3.560395 10.451515 27.545125 65.025296 137.650192 280.198855
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.840059 3.319998 10.147769 27.603614 66.795459 144.161672 298.371989
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.740223 3.100267 9.860436 27.661133 68.555584 150.741395 316.994068
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.728151 3.169750 10.348610 29.620428 74.560557 165.929431 352.524917
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.687570 3.131030 10.536094 30.861944 79.076946 178.407084 383.465405
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.645573 3.076906 10.672476 31.988237 83.414967 190.750997 414.703823